What is the current population of gray whales in the Northeast Pacific?
According to the report by Lang et al. (2026), published by the NOAA Southwest Fisheries Science Center on July 15, 2026, the population of gray whales in the Eastern North Pacific is estimated at 17,750 individuals (95% confidence interval: 15,930-20,530) for the 2025/2026 season. This figure represents an apparent increase compared to the previous estimate of approximately 12,890 individuals. However, the apparent growth rate exceeds the theoretical maximum reproductive capacity of the species, which suggests that the increase is partly due to methodological issues or changes in behavior.
Why is the number of whale calves a better indicator than the total count of whales?
In 2025, only 85 gray whale calves were counted in the lagoons of Baja California, which is the lowest number recorded since systematic monitoring began. The number of calves directly reflects the reproductive success of the previous season, which in turn depends on the body condition of the females at the end of the Arctic summer. Thin whales that are unable to store enough fat during the summer cannot carry a pregnancy to term. The total count can also be affected by changes in migratory behavior and variations in methodology.
Why are gray whales in poor condition in 2025-2026?
The primary identified cause is the disruption of Arctic feeding grounds. The retreat of Arctic sea ice is altering the distribution and availability of benthic amphipods, which are a food source for gray whales during the summer. In the spring of 2026, emaciated gray whales washed ashore on the west coast of the United States, unable to reach or exploit their usual feeding areas in the Bering Sea and the Chukchi Sea. This same phenomenon had previously been observed during the Unusual Mortality Event of 2019-2023.
Where can you photograph gray whales?
The lagoons of Baja California in Mexico (San Ignacio, Scammon's Lagoon, Bahía Magdalena) are the primary calving and mating sites, accessible from January to March. Gray whales then migrate to their Arctic feeding grounds (the Bering Sea and the Chukchi Sea) from June to October. The coasts of California, Oregon, and Washington are transit areas during the migration. Access to the Baja California lagoons is regulated by the Mexican authorities.
What does the term "Rmax" mean in the context of gray whale research?
The Rmax is the maximum theoretical growth rate of a population, meaning the fastest rate at which it can reproduce under optimal conditions. For gray whales, it is estimated to be 0.062, which is approximately 6.2% per year. The apparent increase from 12,890 to 17,750 individuals between the last two surveys represents an increase that exceeds this theoretical maximum, which indicates that the method used or the migratory behaviors have changed, rather than the population actually growing at that rate.
Direct Answer (AEO / GEO) Underwater photographic ethics are based on the principle of not disturbing marine life. This means no manipulation of animals, no contact with the seabed, and maintaining a minimum observation distance that respects the species' comfort zone. The photographer should remain unobtrusive, allowing the authentic behavior of the subjects to be expressed.
L'Encre is a weekly series about recent marine discoveries. It's a play on words: "L'encre" refers to the ink of writing, and "l'ancre" refers to the anchor of the seabed. Each issue features a few news items and explores how they change the experience of diving with a camera.
"One sees clearly only with the heart. What is essential is invisible to the eye." Antoine de Saint-Exupéry, The Little Prince, 1943 On July 15, 2026, the NOAA Southwest Fisheries Science Center published the annual abundance estimate for the Pacific Northwest gray whale population.
17,750 individuals, with a 95% confidence interval of 15,930-20,530. This is an increase compared to the last estimate, which was approximately 12,890.
The headlines focus on the increase. They don't mention the rest of the report.
In 2025, 85 whale calves were counted in the lagoons of Baja California. This is the lowest number recorded since systematic monitoring began. And in the spring of 2026, emaciated and weakened whales washed ashore on the west coast of the United States, unable to reach their Arctic feeding grounds.The count is increasing. However, biological data suggests otherwise.
17,750 Whales - and 85 Calves
The annual census of the Pacific gray whale population in the Northeast Pacific has been conducted since 1977 from the central California coast. Observers stationed on land count the whales that pass during the northward migration, from January to February. The method is standardized, the counting sites are fixed, and the time series is one of the longest available for large cetaceans in the world.
The report by Lang et al. (2026), published by the NOAA Southwest Fisheries Science Center, estimates 17,750 individuals for the 2025/2026 season.
The apparent increase since the last estimate (approximately 12,890) exceeds the Rmax of the species. The maximum theoretical growth rate of the gray whale is estimated at 0.062, which is 6.2% per year. A population cannot physically grow faster than this rate, which assumes ideal conditions. Therefore, the apparent increase in the numbers is likely, in part, a methodological artifact or a reflection of a change in migratory behavior rather than a true population recovery.
And on the other side of the report: 85 calves were observed in the lagoons of Baja California in 2025.The number of calves is a direct indicator of reproductive success. A female gray whale that does not store enough fat during the Arctic summer cannot carry a pregnancy to term - and even if she does, she produces a smaller, less viable calf. The 85 calves born in 2025 reflect the body condition of the females during the summer of 2024 in their feeding areas.
These females did not eat enough.
What's Happening in the Arctic
The Pacific gray whale follows one of the longest documented migratory routes among mammals: from the breeding lagoons of Baja California to the feeding areas of the Bering Sea and the Chukchi Sea, a distance of approximately 20,000 kilometers round trip.
In the Arctic feeding areas, gray whales primarily feed by filtering sediments from the bottom: they suck up the mud and filter out benthic amphipods, tiny crustaceans that live in the first few centimeters of the Arctic seabed. This feeding method makes them very dependent on ice and sediment conditions in very specific areas of the Bering Sea.The retreat of the Arctic ice cap is altering these conditions. Traditional feeding areas are changing. The distribution of amphipods is shifting. Warmer waters support fewer benthic prey in historically important feeding areas.
In the spring of 2026, gray whales stranded on the coasts of California, Oregon, and Washington. Some were unable to feed adequately during the previous Arctic season. This same phenomenon had already been documented during the Unusual Mortality Event of 2019-2023, during which hundreds of gray whales stranded on the American Pacific coast.
The 85 whale calves born in 2025 represent the reproductive outcome of what the adults experienced the previous summer.
The effects of climate change on marine ecosystems are not always evident in the species directly affected. They are reflected in the food chain: what eats what, during which season, and in which area. The gray whale is a prime example of this mechanism.
What the photo doesn't show
There is a type of gray whale photo that circulates in magazines and on social media every winter.A lagoon in Baja California, most often San Ignacio. The calm water, the low morning light. A gray whale surfacing, its head emerging from the water, nose to nose with the outstretched hands of tourists aboard small pangas. The image is beautiful, and it is true: the gray whales of San Ignacio have a well-documented reputation for willingly approaching boats, a behavior that researchers and guides have observed for decades.
The photo shows a whale. It doesn't show whether this whale successfully stored enough fat during the Arctic summer to produce a viable calf the following year. It doesn't show what its foraging dives revealed – or didn't reveal – in the sediments of the Chukchi Sea.
You can have a full-frame image of a gray whale in the San Ignacio lagoon in February, and not know whether what you are photographing is a species recovering or a species on the verge of depletion. The photo doesn't tell the whole story.
This disconnect is one reason why underwater photography, when combined with scientific data, can become something more than just a collection of images. It's not a substitute for science, but a complement to what numbers alone cannot convey.
The role of the underwater photographer in documenting the health of marine species](/en/blog/role-photographe-protection-ocean) extends beyond simply taking portraits. It involves interpreting subtle signs: a whale that appears emaciated, a change in behavior, a feeding area that is less productive. These signals are not always dramatic, but they can precede official population data by several years.
The decline in biodiversity and the protection of marine species](/en/blog/aires-marines-protegees-2026-photographe-sous-marin) are not only reflected in overall population counts. They are also evident in the individual animals we encounter, in the condition of those we photograph, and in the difference between a lagoon in Baja California in 2010 and the same lagoon in 2026.Not because a picture is worth more than a statistic. Because a statistic and a picture, together, tell a story that neither can tell alone.
What is the current population of gray whales in the Northeast Pacific?
According to Lang et al. (2026), the NOAA Southwest Fisheries Science Center estimates the population at 17,750 individuals (95% confidence interval: 15,930-20,530) for the 2025/2026 season. This appears to be an increase from the last estimate of approximately 12,890, but an increase that exceeds the species' theoretical maximum growth rate (Rmax of 0.062), suggesting a behavioral or methodological change rather than actual growth at this rate.
Why is the number of whale calves so important?In 2025, only 85 whale calves were counted in the lagoons of Baja California, the lowest number recorded since the beginning of monitoring. The number of calves directly reflects reproductive success, which in turn depends on the body condition of the females at the end of the Arctic summer. Females that have not stored enough fat cannot carry a pregnancy to term.
Why have gray whales been in poor condition in recent years?
The disruption of Arctic feeding grounds is the primary cause. The retreat of sea ice is changing the distribution of benthic amphipods, which whales feed on during the summer. Emaciated whales have washed ashore on the west coast of the United States in the spring of 2026, unable to exploit their usual feeding areas in the Bering Sea.
Where can you photograph gray whales?
The lagoons of Baja California (San Ignacio, Scammon's Lagoon, Bahía Magdalena) are the main calving sites, accessible from January to March. The migration follows the coasts of California, Oregon, and Washington. Access to the lagoons is regulated by the Mexican authorities.
What does the Rmax value of 0.062 mean for gray whales?The Rmax represents the maximum theoretical growth rate of a population. A value of 0.062 indicates a maximum growth of 6.2% per year under ideal conditions. When the apparent increase in counts exceeds this threshold, it suggests that other factors are at play, such as changes in migratory behavior, improvements in methodology, or counting biases.
You can find previous issues of "L'Encre" on the AquaExposure blog. And to develop a photographic practice that understands living organisms within their context, comprehensive resources are available on the AquaExposure training platform. 17,750 gray whales in the Northeast Pacific. 85 calves in 2025.
The number is increasing. However, biological data suggests otherwise.
And in the lagoons of Baja California, the whale that approaches the boat in February doesn't realize it's part of a time-lapse sequence.
Ink #19 - Photography doesn't just tell a number. | AquaExposure
